captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> woodruff: the congressional budget office warns of recession if congress fails to address a looming fiscal cliff of spending and tax cuts. good evening, i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. on the "newshour" tonight, we assess the dire forecast and the elusive fixes. >> woodruff: then, as the presidential hopefuls spar over health care, education and more, we talk to four political reporters in four swing states. ( coughing ) >> ifill: betty ann bowser has the story of the comeback of whooping cough with infants at greatest risk. >> four doctors stood there and they were all crying and they told us there was no way the machine was going to work any longer and they took her off life support and then she tried to take a breath and within seconds she was just gone. >> woodruff: lindsey hilsum

reports on the thousands of refugees fleeing the west african nation of mali to escape the rule of islamic militants. >> the people coming across the border paint a picture of a region that's descending into chaos. they're terrified of the armed men who are roaming northern mali and imposing their version of sharia. >> ifill: and jeffrey brown talks to pulitizer prize winning author richard ford about "canada," his new novel on murder, morality and coming of age. >> woodruff: that's all ahead on tonight's "newshour." major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by:

and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> ifill: the nation could be pushed into a major recession next year if scheduled spending cuts and tax hikes kick in at the end of the year. the congressional budget office said going over the so-called fiscal cliff could have dire consequences. unless congress acts by the end of the year, americans can expect more than $300 billion in tax increases as bush-era tax cuts expire. and nearly $200 billion in across-the-board spending cuts congress agreed to last year in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. the c.b.o. said those changes would reduce the deficit substantially. but the economy would also shrink by nearly 3% during the first half of the year and

unemployment could top 9%. we look more closely at this now, with maya macguineas, president of the committee for a responsible federal budget. and alice rivlin, a founding director of the c.b.o. she's now with the brookings institution. welcome to you both. alice rivlin, what's the most important thing pushing us toward this cliff, this rhetorical but real cliff? >> well, the most important thing pushing us is that congress enact these cuts in spending, and the lapse in the tax cuts, and they will take place unless the congress gets itself together to do something about it. and that's going to be very difficult. nothing's going to happen signal after the election. and when they come back, are they going to be ready after all this hostility to sit down together and solve a problem? i hope so, but it's not guaranteed. >> ifill: so is it inertia

that's at the root of this, maya mcguiness? >> you know, this is kind of one of those moments when our inability to make tough choices is about to catch us with. and this is kind of the-- we're going to have to pay the piper at some point. we have known for so long that we need to deal with our fiscal challenges in this country. and instead of sort of moving forward on the various budget deals that have been proposed it's most recent one that didn't move forward is the super committee. we do need to cut spending but this is probably not the right way to do it, abruptly and across the board. on the tax hikes, they're going to expire and they would hurdle us off the fiscal cliff and put us in a recession. we shouldn't make the decisions that way. we need to do them thoughtfully and gradually. >> ifill: which would you say is the most damages part of the formula, the croops the board spending cuts or the tax

cuts being extended? >> oh, i think it's both. >> ifill: it's not juston or the other. >> it's not just one or the other. and together they give you a large impact on the economy. and by the same token, if you think about what would be better, it isn't just spending. we can't fick the long-run problem of the deficit by just cutting spending. and we can't fix it by just raising taxs. we've got to do some of each, but in a gradual way over time, and in a much more intelligent way than this actually rk thing, which is about to hit us. >> ifill: this blunt-force object heading in our direction. >> absolutely. >> ifill: draw the line for me between these numbers and unemployment going up to 9% next year. what is the connection? >> so, we know that right now we have too much debt in our economy, and that's causing a drag on economic growth. but what you have to do to deal with that is put in place a long-term, screbl plan to bring our debt local officials down

but note so fast this it would interrupt what is a really fragile economy we're having right now. the problem with the fiscal cliff is too much deficit save ago and that's from somebody who believes we need to do that. it's too fast and in the wrong way. we're not picking and choosing what we would change. it's basically congress saying we can't make the choices so we're going to have croos the board cuts and it's the wrong way to do it. >> ifill: i've heard both of you talk about the deficit problem and how important it is to address it. isn't there something to be said for erring on the side of cutting the deficit? >> yes, but not too quickly as maya says. if you raise taxes fast on everybody, and you cut spending very rapidly-- defense, domestic, the whole bit-- and in a stupid way-- people have less money to spend, and they'll spend less. and that's the connection with unemployment. spending will go down, and less

people will have jobs. >> ifill: let's indulge in the fantasy for a moment-- congress comes back after the elections and they say we can't let this happen. what are their options to avoiding the cliff? >> i thinkic it's fair to say the only thing worse than going off cliff is punting. one soption we go off the cliff. we just let these policies hit, the deficit schirchgz a whole lot but does so in a way that puts us in a recession. the other option-- which i worry about a lot-- they say we can't do all of this. let's get rid of the sequester, extend the tax cuts and punt again. that would add trillions of dlart of debt to an already-excessive debt level. the punt is the thing to worry about. what you want to do is replace either one of those options with a big kind of budget deal that would be phased in dwrawlly, like alice said, thoughtfully, give time for the economy to recover but put us on a debt level where it's coming down as a shaifort economy gradually. >> practically, i think they have to do a combination of

punting or kicking the can down the road, and putting in place at least a framework for the big deal. and why i say "framework" is that what needs to happen is thorough tax reform and thorough entitlement reform-- or at least some-- and those are very hard things to do. and they won't have much time before the end of the year. so what they can do is not punt as maya says completely, but say, "we will set aside these drastic things until a date certain--" say march 30 or something like that. "at the same time we will put in place a framework for actually solving the problem, the long-run deficit problem. and agree on ways of doing that, that will actually happen. >> ifill: we're in the middle of a big presidential campaign.

theoretically, it's supposed to be a discussion of major high-tone policy issues. it's not always that. have you heard either of the major candidates for president or any of their running mates talk seriously about this issue and are there proposals on the table that leadership would pull us short of a cliff? >> there are policies on the table already. we had, after all, the sim son-bowles commission, which i was on, and also the commission that senator domenici and i chaired-- >> ifill: policies the candidates have embraced. >> the policies are available. the candidates are not taking those proposals seriously because they're too hard. they involve really difficult s.oi >> ifill: are you surprised there hasn't been more campaign conversation about this? >> well, i think-- like you said, we have a national campaign right now. we have a huge problem that we know is staring us in the face.

we have to use this opportunity to have a real discussion about how we're going to fix it. and pretty much anybody who looks at it knows that we need to do this as quickly as possible. we won't get it done before the election but we have to do it as quickly as possible afterwards. however, i think the real risk-- and we saw a little bit of this about medicare in the past couple days-- is that instead of the candidates saying, "here's how i would fix the problem. here's a $5 trillion deal. here's what i would do on medicare and social security and taxes, all the things we need to do--" they start throwing accusations saying, "you cut medicare." "no, you cut medicare." the truth is we have to have that real conversation. we're gog have to reform medicare and other things and i hope it doesn't turn into the normal throwing bombs instead of talking with what we should do. >> ifill: we will look forward to that conversation. maya mcguiness, >> woodruff: still to come on the "newshour": on the ground in the battleground states; the whooping cough epidemic; the exodus of refugees from mali and pulitzer prize winning novelist, richard ford.

but first, the other news of the day. here's kwame holman. >> holman: there was more evidence of a recovery in the housing market today. sales of existing homes were up in july 2.3% over june according to the national association of realtors. nonetheless newly released minutes of the last federal reserve board meeting showed members still leaning toward taking further steps to spur the economy. the mixed news wasn't enough to boost stocks on wall street today. the dow jones industrial average lost more than 30 points to close above 13,172. the nasdaq rose six points to close at 3,073. in syriaiaoday, government 41 people in the u.s. have died from west nile virus and the number of new cases is at the highest level in more than a decade. the federal centers for disease control said some 1,100 cases were reported through mid- august-- three times more than usual by this point in the year. the c.d.c. blames a mild winter, early spring, and hot summer for fostering a greater population

of mosquitoes, which spread the virus. older fathers pose a greater risk of passing on gene mutations to their children that could lead to autism and schizophrenia. that was the conclusion of a study published online by the journal "nature". scientists sequenced the genomes of 78 icelandic families in which children had both those disorders and found the father's age was a crucial risk factor. the age of the mother was found to have no bearing. in syria today, government troops launched new house-to-house raids in two districts of damascus. activists said more than 30 suspected rebels were killed. battles also raged for control of the northern city of aleppo where plumes of thick black smoke billowed above the skyline. it's been a battleground for more than a month. fighting also spilled across the border into lebanon overnight as regime supporters clashed with members of the opposition in tripoli. at least six people were killed and scores were reported wounded.

a grim milestone was marked today in the u.s. war in afghanistan: deaths of american troops reached 2,000. the calculation by "the new york times" analyzes department of defense records and includes those who died in afghanistan as well as elsewhere if directly related to the war. the defense department counts deaths outside afghanistan separately. other tallies also differ: the associated press puts the number of u.s. war dead at 1,968, the independent site icasualties.org counts 2,102. a british man who fought for the right to end his life by assisted suicide died today of pneumonia. tony nicklinson was left profoundly paralyzed and unable to speak by a stroke in 2005. last week a court rejected his latest appeal for an assisted suicide. we have a report from penn marshall of "independent television news." >> reporter: tony nicklinson will be remembered as the man with locked in syndrome who fought for the right to die.

but his family will never forget the athletic and fun-loving man he was before a stroke changed his life and made him want to die. only last week, he was left devastated when his fight for an assisted death of his own choosing failed. >> you can see from tony's reaction he's heartbroken. >> reporter: he died this morning of pneumonia. he'd refused to accept food as his condition worsened. >> after he received the draft judgment refusing his claim, the fight seemed to go out of him. he said that he was heartbroken by the high court's decision that he could not end his life at a time of his choosing with the helpave doctor. >> reporter: other assisted suicide cammers, like m.s. patient debbie purdy, paid tribute to his courage. >> i hope people remember that this was somebody who was prepared to put interests of other people before his own.

>> reporter: tony nicklinson built up a large following on the social networking site twitter in the last few months, and this morning, his family used it to say good-bye. his daughter wrote, "dad, you're finally at peace. beth and i are so proud to be your daughters. we got our strength from you. i love you, kiss, kiss, cilsz." fulfilling her father's last wish, there was this message, too, "before he tied he asked us to tweet, "good-bye, world. the time has come. i had some fun." >> holman: nicklinson's case sparked a heated debate over euthanasia legislation in britain. throughout europe, only belgium, luxembourg, the netherlands and switzerland have legalized the right to die. on mars, the rover "curiosity" went on its first test drive today to explore for evidence of life existing on the planet. nasa engineers positioned the rover's wheels to move forward about ten feet, turn right, and steer backward, leaving track marks on the planet's soil. scientists say curiosity

eventually could roam hundreds of feet per day. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to judy. >> woodruff: we take a look at the presidential race as the candidates fanned out across the country today. there are only five days to go before republicans officially open their national convention in tampa, looking for a bounce coming out of the key swing state of florida. but for now president obama still has a small edge over mitt romney. according to a new "nbc news/wall street journal" poll, the democratic ticket leads the republican one, 48% to 44% among registered voters. that's little changed from july when obama had a lead of 49% to 43%-- suggesting romney got only a slight boost from his vice presidential pick of paul ryan. the four candidates fanned out across the nation today: president obama was in nevada; governor romney in iowa; vice

president biden in michigan; and congressman ryan in virginia and north carolina-- shown here on the "newshour's" vote 2012 map center. the top of the republican ticket told iowans today his running mate would help get the country back on the right fiscal track. >> i want to return to the path that made america the great success that it's been and i understand the implications of that. 12 million jobs for middle income families, more take-home pay for middle income families. this is what we have to bring to this country and the plan i've decided on will get it done. >> woodruff: on the east coast, congressman ryan was going after the president in another battleground-- virginia. ryan told the roanoke crowd that mr. obama's health care overhaul would wreck medicare. >> he took $716 billion from the medicare program and spent it on obamacare. do you think raiding medicare to pay for obamacare is an achievement? do you think dropping medicare

patients is an achievement? neither do we. >> woodruff: that's the same message the campaign is delivering in its first health care attack ad since the supreme court upheld the president's federal mandate in june. >> some think obamacare is the same as free health care but nothing is free. obama is raiding $716 billion from medicare changing the program forever-- taxing wheelchairs and pacemakers, >> woodruff: the president's campaign also released a new tv ad today, but focused on the issue of public education. >> but mitt romney says class sizes don't matter. and he support's paul ryan's budget that could cut education by 20%. >> you can't do this by shoving 25, 30 people in a class and teaching to a test. >> woodruff: mr. obama carried his education message west to

nevada where he told a packed high school gymnasium that governor romney didn't understand the value of the nation's teachers. >> governor romney says we've got enough teachers, we don't need anymore. the way he talks about them it seems like he thinks they're a bunch of nameless government bureaucrats that we need to cut back on. >> woodruff: in detroit vice president biden spoke a crowd at renaissance high school. >> stand back, take a look at what these guys value. let's rook at what they're proposing. let's look at their budget. he wants to make massive cuts, i mean mass itch cuts in education. >> woodruff: meanwhile, missouri republican senate candidate todd akin's statement this week that the female body can shut down" pregnancy in cases of legitimate rape continued to distract the republican ticket. like akin, ryan opposes abortion in all instances, but he told

reporters on the trail today he would defer to governor romney in making an exception in the case of rape. >> i'm proud of my record. mitt romney is going to be the president. the president sets policy. his policy is exception for rape, insist, life of the mother. i'm comfortable with it. >> woodruff: as the political storm continues to rage, meteorologists from the national weather service have an eye on tropical storm isaac as it is now forecast to become a hurricane, possibly off the coast of florida monday as the republican convention opens. how is the campaign is playing out where it matters most? we turn to reporters from four battleground states. that's o.kay henderson, the news director for radio iowa. adam smith, political editor of "the tampa bay times." karen kasler, bureau chief for ohio public radio in columbus. and jon ralston, the host of the nightly nevada television show "face to face."

and we welcome all of you to the newshour. i'm going to quickly go around and ask each one of you what the race looks like where you are, and start with you, adam smith, where i guess everybody is hoping there won't be a hurricane for the republican convention. but what does it look like across the state of florida right now? >> well, i would bring-- your rain boots down here. it looks like a dead heat. it's been very stable for months. >> woodruff: at this point, are you sensing a reaction to romney's pick of paul ryan as his running mate? >> we haven't seen a big move in the polls. i know there are a lot of republicans here that are a little anxious about how that's going to play in florida. it's a-- it's definitely for florida where half our voters are at least 50 years old it's a risky pick. >> woodruff: karen kasler, let me turn to you. what's the statewide sense of the race right now? >> it appears ohio is pretty much up for grab, still. real clear politics has ohio with 46.8% for president obama, 45% for mitt romney.

a quinnipiac poll earlier this month had president obama leading mitt romney by six points, 50% to 44%. we'll get a better snapshot of where we are in ohio tomorrow when we have two new polls, a quinnipiac swing state poll coming out tomorrow, as well as the ohio poll from the university of cincinnati. >> woodruff: and o.kay henderson in iowa, what does it look like there? >> it is a dead heat here as well. things have not changed much since the beginning of the year. the paul ryan pick is sort of turning out, as you talk with iowa republicans, as as "do no harm" pick. it really was not a game changer for republican voters. it may have reassured some conservatives, but it certainly didn't change the dynamic of the race in that you have republicans who vociferously hope to vote obama out of office, and you have democrats who want to retain the white house for president obama. >> woodruff: and, jon ralston in nevada, where president obama was campaigning today, what does

it look like where you are? >> well, the race is close, judy. president obama when he was running for the presidency in 200aircraft won here by 12 points. i think he's still a slight favorite here, which is really astonishing when you think about it because we have maybe the worst economy in the country, highest unemployment rate, foreclosure crisis so bad here. but the pols i trust show obama slightly ahead here. >> woodruff: what with the reaction of the pick of congressman ryan? >> that's been very interesting because we have a very important u.s. senate race here between dean heller and shelly berkeley, and shelly berkeley had been clouded by this ethics investigation. i think her campaign got reinvigorated by the choice of paul ryan trying to tie dean heller, who voted for the ryan budget twice-- the only one who did as both a congressman and senator, and another down ticket race a very important swing congressional district. the bottom parts of the federal

ticket on the democratic side are actually excited about the ryan pick. >> woodruff: back to you adam smith in florida. you were starting to say the choice of congressman ryan has complicated the story for republicans in florida. what did you mean by that? >> well, i mean, most people were thinking this was going to be an election on the economy, and we're still hurting here in florida, and now it looks like medicare and entitlement reform are going to be a front-burner issue. and the hispanic vote here is absolutely critical, and there's very little it looks like paul ryan's going to do to help romney pick up more hispanic votes. >> woodruff: and on medicare, the republicans have come back with a frontal attack on the president. they've tried to turn that issue around. is it-- is it too early to sense how that's playing out in florida? >> you know, it used to be really it was a third-rail kind of issue. in the last senate race, marco rubio was very up front about suggesting we're going to need to have cuts for beneficiaries

and he obviously won. it's not quite the dangerous issue it once was, and right now it seems to be basically both sides throwing everything at each other saying obama raided $700 billion from medicare to pay for obamacare, and the democrats saying the romney-ryan plan is going to gut medicare, end it as we know it. >> woodruff: and in ohio, karen kasler, whether it's medicare or another issue, what are voters talking about? what are they bringing up right now when you talk to them and your colleagues? >> well, voters are still telling pollsters that the economy is their number one issue, 48% were reporting that back in the quinnipiac poll at the beginning of the month. we're hearing a lot about the economy, even though omit's unemployment rate is lower than the national average and continues to drop. it's still, though, foreclosures and that sort of thing are still a critical issue here. and with the ryan pick, i think there were should people in ohio who were a little disappointed in the ryan pick because there was widespread speculation that rob portman, ohio's junior

senator, the u.s. senator from cincinnati, was going to end up being the vice presidential choice. but, certainly, you hear a lot of people now saying that they're on board with ryan. and ryan does help romney in some parts of the state. romney almost lost-- he barely won the march primary, and those voters that went for rick santorum in the rural and urban parts of ohio, it's thought maybe ryan could help romney with those voters gloo kay henderson in iowa, what about this medicare question we've within talking about? iowa is a state that has seen its economy suffer. >> the unemployment rate here has done a little uptick in the past month. in regards to the issue, the romney campaign is running an ad which essentially accuses of president of being a thief. the obama campaign has been running advertisements here trying to define mitt romney as some sort of robber baron who doesn't care about voters.

so if you look at the campaign advertising, and what the candidates have been talking about on the stump here in iowa, it has appeared until today, this afternoon, that the candidates are trying to energize their base of voters, because it appears that iowa is among the purplest of states, perhaps still in this election cycle. but then this afternoon, mitt romney made a plea with his supporters to go out and essentially convert 2008 obama voters to vote for him. so that's the first time we've really heard mitt romney in a campaign appearance here in iowa talk about trying to convert and bring in independent and even democratic voters to the romney campaign. >> woodruff: that's very interesting. jon ralston, what about in nevada? are you picking up anything like that on the republican side? >> well, listen, i think that the issue here is the same as it is everywhere else, it's this mythical indecided voter, judy. this is all about now the base

election, and that's why i think ryan had some impact here in a sal tarry way for the republicans. he came here a couple of days after he was picked, showing the importance of this state to that ticket and he really energized the base. similarly, president obama when he was in las vegas today, it was a pure partisan speecat a hool talking about how mitt romney wants to cut education and give tax breaks to millionaires and billion arizona but we need you, we need you, to get out. it's about a base election now, judy. that's what's going on. >> woodruff: let me quickly ask all four of you how the campaigns are organized in your state, and do you see that making a difference in such a close race. adam smith, starting with you in florida. >> oh, they are both verdict organized. obama has by far the biggest campaign operation florida has ever seen. i think there are about 50 offices now open in every corner of the state. and romney, unlike mccain four years ago, really has a pretty

solid grass-roots operation. he's got dozens of campaign offices. he's investing in the ground troops. and they seem to be getting a lot of people showing up for those phone banks and door knocks. >> woodruff: karen kasler? >> it seems to be the same here if ohio. in 2010, the off-year elections, the republicans dominated and they've kept that organization. and last year, in ohio, the democrats scored a big win with with witthe repeal of collective bargaining reform law. they're countdowning on that to bring their voters out this fall. >> woodruff: just a few words from you, kay henderson, in iowa, on organization. >> in 2000-- oh, on organization. in 20 00, al gore won by 4,000 votes. in 2004, george w. bush won by 10,000 votes. this is an incredibly close election again in 2012 and both campaigns have ramped up accordingly gloo jon ralston, what about nevada in terms of

how well these campaigns are organized? >> well, certainly the democrats have been much better organized here for quite some time as you know, judy. that's what saved harry reid in 2010. that's what could save barack obama here, despite the terrible economy. the republican party here is just a punchline. you have one part of the party suing another part of the party to kick them out of the party. so the romney campaign and the r.n.c. have erected a parallel organization. they have some good people on the ground but the democrats are much more better organized here. >> woodruff: all right, thanks to all four of you in four battleground states. online, you can use our vote 2012 map center to see what happens if these battleground states flip from 2008. also, christina and gwen offered a little preview of the "newshour's" convention coverage, announcing a partnership with u-stream to give you an all-access pass to what the parties do in tampa and charlotte. watch that video on our home page.

>> ifill: now, the troubling return of an old disease that can be deadly to the youngest of children. "newshour" health correspondent betty ann bowser reports. >> free whooping cough shots. free whooping cough shots. >> reporter: in washington state whooping cough is now something to stand on the corner and shout about, because the state is in the grips of the worst epidemic in half a century. health officials in everett are so concerned that on a recent tuesday night they held a free clinic to get as many people vaccinated as possible. whooping cough's official name is pertussis, but whatever you call it the disease is making a comeback across the country. >> this is a record year. >> reporter: dr. anne schuchat is the centers for disease control's top immunization official. >> we've had about 21,000 cases which is more than twice what we had last year by this time. in fact, we're on track to be at a 50-year high for pertussis

this year. >> reporter: so far whooping cough has claimed 13 lives, all of them babies. washington state has one of the highest number of pertussis cases in the nation, along with wisconsin, minnesota and new york. the disease is known for the dramatic whooping noise its victims make as they try to catch their breath after coughing spells. it can often lead to cracked ribs, pneumonia, even death. a vaccine was developed more than 50 years ago, but it caused so many bad side effects that a new one was introduced in the 1990s. it's called d-tap. but, recently, the c.d.c. discovered a troubling trend-- teenagers who had been inoculated against whooping cough were getting sick, in all there have been nine adolescent cases this year. >> it turns out that in the short term protection is very

good within two years of vaccination, about 95%. but five years after completing the five dose childhood series protection drops off and is only about 70%. we call that waning immunity or a drop off in protection. >> reporter: so several years ago, a pertussis booster shot was developed which the c.d.c. says should be given to all teenagers and adults, but it's not known how long that protection lasts. babies remain extremely vulnerable, because they don't get their first shot until two months of age. people in the quiet town of lake stevens, near everett, know all too well the tragedy pertussis can bring. this is where little kaliah jeffrey lived for just 27 days. when mother chelsy charles brought her new baby home, she was already suffering from a bad cough. she had not been vaccinated

while pregnant. >> my cough was getting progressively worse. during the second week she started to sneeze a little bit and i was googling stuff and the only thing that caught my eye was whooping cough so i started getting really scared because it's deadly to newborns. >> reporter: following a pertussis diagnosis, little kaliah was admitted to the intensive care unit at a seattle hospital, things went from bad to worse. >> four doctors stood there and they were all crying and they told us there was no way the machine was going to work any longer. they asked me how i wanted to let her go and they placed her in my arms and everybody said goodbye. i was holding her and telling her that everything was going to get better and that she'd be okay now and wouldn't have to fight anymore and they took her off life support and then she tried to take a breath and within seconds she was just gone. >> reporter: so now chelsey fills her days with pictures and memories. and she often stops in front of

a bookcase to re-arrange kaliah's stuffed animals around the tiny silver heart that contains the baby's ashes. >> everybody needs to be vaccinated from it, because you don't want somebody else to lose a baby because of your ignorance of not vaccinating. >> reporter: the adult pertussis booster is only a few years old, so the c.d.c. says vaccination rates among adults are dangerously low, just 8%. in olympia, washington state health officials have been in olympia, washington state health officials have been closely monitoring the path of the disease since they declared an epidemic in april. mary selecky is the state's secretary of health. >> adults don't realize they are the carriers and they are the ones who carry this bug around. they might get a mild case and

have a dry cough and think its seasonal allergies and what they are doing is carrying whooping cough and every time they cough they spread it. >> reporter: the two companies that manufacture the vaccine says they know there may be problems, but still think vaccination is still the most effective way to prevent whooping cough. questions about the vaccine have led a number of parents in washington state to refuse to vaccine their kids. vashon island is just a short ferry boat ride from downtown seattle, where march twisdale and her family live on a farm. twisdale has vaccinated her two boys against tetanus and measles but not whooping cough. she thinks the vaccine is ineffective. >> i'm not a vaccine denier. i know what vaccines do, and i know what they don't do. that's the real difference. i know when i can trust them, when i can't, when they work, when they don't, and the long-

term effects of them. >> reporter: twisdale and her two sons have had all had whooping cough, but she says if they get sick again she's prepared. >> i personally know how important it is to keep ourselves at home and to keep quarantine as a tool in our tool kit. and to not go casually spreading your germs to other people because you think you're not going to hurt anyone. >> reporter: twisdale's views are shared by a lot of other people on vashon island, where 18% of school-age children have not been vaccinated. that's three times higher than the rest of the state. on nearby maury island celina yarkin and her family raise vegetables to sell at the local farmer's market. she's a strong vaccine supporter, who thinks keeping sick kids at home does not stop the spread of whooping cough. >> i do think it's arrogant to

think that you can outsmart a microbe and a virus. with pertussis, you know, thinking that you can catch it with just a cough. i mean, i know that we have a lot of coughs through the winter and to identify it as pertussis right away and quarantine is-- boy i wouldn't trust myself to be able to catch that with my kids to keep other kids safe. i think it's very risky. >> reporter: last year the wash state legislature made it harder for parents to refused to vaccinate their children. it passed a law that requires people to be fully informed of the pros and cons of vaccines before choosing to opt out. but health officials think even with a drop of 2% in the state's number of refusers that the whooping cough epidemic wi get worse before it gets better. >> ifill: we have more reporting on whooping cough online.

a first-person account from chelsy charles on her daughter's death; ten things you should know about the disease; two views on vaccinations from mothers who made different decisions. and, a c.d.c. official will answer your questions about whooping cough. submit them on our health page. >> woodruff: next, to the west african nation of mali. earlier this week, lindsey hilsum of "independent television news" reported on islamic militants who now control two-thirds of the country. violence and harsh punishments carried out by the militants have driven thousands to flee to neighboring mauritania. tonight, hilsum has the stories of families crossing the border. >> reporter: it's been a long journey-- three days trek through desert. another seven families whov'e loaded everything they have onto their carts and crossed the border into mauritania. fear and hunger drove them out

of northern mali. they tell their story to the police chief in the border town of fassalla. >> ( translated ): they say that fear of having a hand amputated, or being whipped or stoned to death made them come. they will not accept these things. they're muslims but they can't endure this kind of religion being imposed upon them. about 400 malians arrive every day with similar tales of fighting between armed groups, and terror being administered by al qaeda and its allies in and around timbuktu. >> reporter: the people coming across the border paint the picture of a region that's descending into chaos. there's less and less to eat they say, and they cant afford the prices in the market. but, worse than that, they're terrified of the armed men who are roaming northern mali and

imposing their version of sharia. the tuaregs of northern mali are used to a tough life, but not like this. >> ( translated ): we're frightened because there's no government we can trust to protect us from the armed groups. >> reporter: they've heard on the radio that foreign powers may attack the islamists with drones or fighter bombers. what i'm afraid of is being bombed from the air. >> reporter: a few months back, the tuaregs were celebrating. they seized weapons from the malian army, to add to those they'd been given by colonel gaddafi of libya, and claimed northern mali as an independent tuareg state flying their own flag, but al qaeda hijacked their victory. the tuaregs and local islamists fought in gao and other towns. the tuareg separatists were

pushed out and the islamists prevailed. now the al qaeda flag flies over northern mali, so many tuaregs are being forced into exile. the journey from the border to the refugee camp isn't easy, especially in the rainy season. pastures new, but not for the refugees who face a life of uncertainty. mbera camps 1,000 kilometers from the mauritania capital in a remote and inaccessible corner of the sahara. 100,000 people are living here and more arrive every day. at least here they have water and the basics needed to survive. fatima sidi mohammed's makeshift dwelling collapsed in the rain and wind. her neighbors helping her build another.

she tells me she spent all her money hiring a vehicle to get to mauritania and now she has nothing. in the clinic, they're treating diseases caused by malnutrition and poor sanitation. health centers in the villages around timbuktu have stopped working and the islamists prevent women from leaving their homes. >> ( translated ): we're scared of everyone. you can't even go out to buy food, because your life is at risk. in the camp at least we feel safe and we're given food. >> reporter: sallama mint dells grandson hassan's getting treatment now, but he's in danger. it may be too late. the young men tell me they have neither jobs nor education. northern mali's always been deprived. the tuareg blame both the malian government and the islamists for their misfortune. >> ( translated ): the tuareg

are victims just as the north is a victim. we expected that, because you can't have what you want without suffering. you can't get your identity without suffering, without dying, without taking all the risks in the world. >> reporter: refugees gather to listen to the griot-- it's a traditional form of story- telling through music. the islamists have banned musical instruments and singing. here in mauritania at least the tuareg are free to tell their story. how they fought for independence, but got exile instead. >> woodruff: in her final report, lindsey hilsum visits timbuktu to assess the destruction of mausoleums and shrines in the ancient city. >> ifill: finally tonight, a

break from real-world worries, as an award-winning author takes us on a fictional journey north. jeffrey brown has our conversation. >> brown: first, i'll tell but the robbery our parents committed, then about the murders which happened later, events that will reshape the life of 15-year-old dell parsons, are offered up in the opening lines of "canada" the new novel by richard ford, pulitzer prize winning author whose works including: richard ford joins me now. welcome. >> thank you, jeff. >> brown: maybe we should start with the first lines. you tell us what's going to happen. >> yes. >> brown: and then what? >> i was interested in what happened after such things as robberies and such things as murders. i was interested in the consequences of these events because the teller of this event is in part-- i say "in part" because it's an adult and child at once-- a 5-year-old boy whose

parents become bank robbers. and i thought, gee, what happens to 15-year-old kids when their parents become bank robbers? so i thought the consequences of these events are for me more interesting than the events themselves. i also think that's where morality resides for most of us. if we're christians i guess we believe morality resides in our hearts because we know what we should do. for most people, we have to make mistakes to find out. >> brown: it's what happens after we make the mistakes. here we have del lives in montana, 1950s, living with his twin sister, and the parents, who as say, commit a bank robbery, but as you write, "were the least likely people in the whole world to rob a bank." >> closeness to which normal life bears upon felonious life in this instance is very interesting to me. i mean, you can drive by these people's houses in great falls, montana, if you were to, and look through their windy on and

there would be a woman and a man and their two children having dinner and the next day they would go rob a bank. there's something about the dichotomous drama between those two completely disparat kinds of carrying on life that's interesting to me. when you feel that kind of a commotion about something as a writer, then you want to give language to it. >> brown: what about the two voases? there's a 15-year-old telling the tale in a very immediate, at the moment it's happening. and then there's this sitting-something self, same person, looking back in a more contemplative, nostalgic, how did i become the person i am? how do you get the two right. >> for the most part, you want to have the persuasive voice of a 15-year-old, but occasionally-- and readers will let you do this if you've got something to tell them-- occasionally, i want to be able to soar, in essence. i want to be able to talk in the

lingo of a 65-year-old man who has lived a full explf who is educateeducated and smart, who n a teacher and can articulate things the 15-year-old boy couldn't articulate. you might think this thaez two ways of expressing a character's life are atypical, almost, or a clash. in fact, as i say, they don't clash in truth. in our heads every day, we carry around all kinds of voices which ourselves make an inttbraited whole out of. so it's not hard, i don't think, for readers to-- to let a writer do that if you are going to deliver the goods. >> brown: what do you mean "readers will let you do that?" yeah? >> close the book. that's-- ( laughs ). >> brown: you mean literally. >> when readers don't are the you do something, what they do is they close the book. i kind of having a feeling when readers open a book-- mine or somebody else's-- one of the

things that they're doing is looking for a reason to stop reading. i'm constantly having to say, "no, no, no don't stop reading now, keep on reading." it's kind of like the notion, all boats are looking for a place to sink. readers are looking for a place to get out of the book so it's my job to get them to the end. somebody wrote me a letter a while ago and said she didn't like my book at all, it was bad, terrible. >> brown: she thought she'd tell you about it. >> lady, i said, that's fine, but you seem to have read it all, so for me it's win-win. >> brown: i'm also interested in the writing itself. i noticed, as did a number of viewers, there's a different sentence tracto structure, difft kind of language in this book set in montan and canada, compared to, for example, the bascom books set largely in new jersey. you said, "when i write sentences set in montana, i

write different kinds of sentence." >> yes, it's probably true. i don't like the formulation that allows anything to tomorrow how i write sentences, but it is nonetheless true when i was living in mississippi and arkansas, where i grew up, when i would start to write things that were set there, the sentences would change just automatically. likewise, when i write things said in montana-- the sentences don't always change the say way, say, from bascom, new jersey, but they change in some way. >> brown: you're not aware of it. it just happens. >> am aware of it. i just don't like to concede it. i don't like anything without a force and a name and a character to be determining how i write sentences. but nonetheless, it's my relationship, i suppose, with the place which makes a certain kind of strain and makes a certain kind of demand on the stylistics of the book. >> brown: now, speaking of plays, i find-- i found myself smiling a times at the time title of the book. >> yes. >> brown: and i would tell people i'm reading this

wonderfully american novel titled "canada." >> i was interested in canada for a number of reasons. i thought it was a good title for the book. once years ago an editor talked me out of a tiejts i really liked. i've never forgiven myself for it-- i won't tell you which book it was. but i wanted to write a book whose destination was canada for a child like del parsons, who has had a calamitous young life. i'm very fond of canada. i think of myself as a patriotic american. i vote. i volunteered for the marine corps. i did all these patriotic things, but i like canada, and i felt like in some ways canada was a place that would be restorative for him over the course of his life. i mean, it seemed to pose itself for me as a kind of image within which i could house all kinds of good things that would eventually happen to him and be plausible. >> brown: and it worked out. >> it worked out. it did. you get to the end of the book,

where that lady apparently didn't reich it-- she should have liked it. you get to the end of the book, and he is restored, i think, in fact. it has a good ending this book. >> brown: the novel is "canada." richard ford, nice to talk to you. >> thank you, jeff. >> ifill: richard ford reads from his novel on our art beat page, where you'll also find more from jeff's conversation. >> woodruff: again, the major developments of the day: the congressional budget office warned of recession if congress fails to address a looming fiscal cliff of spending and tax cuts. newly released minutes of the last federal reserve board meeting showed members still leaning toward taking further steps to spur the economy. and scientists have found a father's age is linked to the risk of autism and schizophrenia. we have more social security tips online tonight. kwame holman has the details. >> holman: economist larry kotlikoff offers eight more dos and don'ts. ways to maximize your retirement benefits-- it's one of our all- time most popular online features.

find the latest edition on our "making sense" page. that and more is on our web site: newshour.pbs.org. >> ifill: and again, to our honor roll of american service personnel killed in the afghanistan conflict. we add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. here, in silence, are 15 more.

>> woodruff: and that's the "newshour" for tonight. on thursday, we'll look at the justice department's call to unseal secret interviews with former fighters in northern ireland. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. we'll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. thank you and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.

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